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UZR 2003 Previews (December 18, 2003)
Discussion ThreadPosted 7:29 p.m.,
December 19, 2003
(#37) -
Black Hawk Waterloo
The Tantotiger queries: Rally, can you point us to an article that discusses [Erstad's] injury in particular?
I'll step in with an answer. It's not that it's one particular injury preventing Erstad from playing in CF. It's that the Angels feel his style of play (running into walls and getting a concussion, diving all over the place) leads to wear and tear on his body that detract from his offensive performance.
Over his career, Erstad has put up a 826 OPS and stolen 84 bases at a 77% success rate in 567 games before the All Star break. Post-Break: 694 OPS, 59 SB, 73.75%, 435 G. (Apologies for the crudity of using OPS, but more advanced metrics are unavailable in split form. ;)
It is a pretty regular trend. In 2002 his OPS dropped from 761 to 635. 2001: from 753 to 617. It's a pretty definite trend, at least since he's moved to CF full-time.
The Angels ascribe this to his style of play, and it seems like they might be right. It seems like a more reasonable solution may be to move him to LF and put Garret Anderson in CF, where he would be competent. Erstad would still be chasing flies, and would not be wasted on the corner of the diamond.
My personal opinion is that Erstad should remain in CF. MGL's numbers show that he is a very valuable player there, and he may very well be worth the money at that position. Perhaps his offense is a casualty; so be it.